My Economic Prediction for the Next Five Years
In 2004, I predicted the following:
- By November of 2005 the expansion of the US economy would stop (Correct)
- By August of 2006 we would structurally be in recession, regardless of the numbers promoted by the federal government (Correct)
- By October of 2006 we would see a slowdown in business (correct)
- Between November and February we would see a market correction of 30%. I refined this to December 15th, which has since passed. (Incorrect)
- By March 2007 we would openly discuss a state of recession. By August of 2007 we would be in full recession.
- The recession will last until the spring of 2010.
- The baby boomer reduction will hit shortly thereafter and fight against the attempted recovery.
- The US will drag the planet into worldwide reorganization the scope of which we have not seen since the fall of the Roman Empire.
This does not mean that people will not make money, or that businesses will not continue. It means that there will be less of a distribution of prosperity, and that prosperity we have made by our knowledge production will expand far less quickly. The counter-argument is that the number of people in the population simply affects the amount of economic innovation that occurs, but this is counter to what has happened in the history of Asia, which returns to the equilibrium of poverty just as quickly as the innovation can be implemented.
I will try to keep this updated as we move through time.
About
Curt Doolittle
Seattle, WA, United States
"De Philosophia Aristocratia"
I am an independent theorist of Political Economy in the Austrian Libertarian tradition. As a methodological Propertarian, I support the Property and Freedom Society, The Mises Institute, and the Neo-Classical LIberalism Movement.Purpose
Anglo Conservatism is the remnant of the European Aristocratic Manorial system and the Classical Liberal philosophy of the Enlightenment, combined with our ancient tribal instincts for group persistence and land-holding. It currently consists as a set of sentiments rather than as an articulated rational philosophy. And without that rational articulation, conservatives lack the ability to create and promote a plan that is a positive and rhetorically defensible alternative to the hazards of accidental bureaucracy and purposeful socialism.
This lack of an articulated philosophy leaves conservatives vulnerable in the public debate with Schumpeterian public intellectuals whose advantage in both volume of production, and simplicity of argument poses a nearly insurmountable challenge.
Libertarianism by contrast, is a rational philosophy of an articulate but permanent minority. It is based upon a solid, rational and critical methodology, even if it is flawed in its initial assumption: the principle of non-violence.
Unfortunately the Rothbardian Anarchist movement has appropriated the term "Libertarian", and left Classical Liberals and Conservatives alienated from the only system of thought with which they need to articulate their political sentiments in rational and empirical rather than moralistic and sentimental form.
By repairing the flaws in Libertarian philosophy we can use its methodology to provide a rhetorical solution for conservatives - a language which in turn may become an articulated philosophical body of argument and advocacy for the frustrated conservative majority.
Recent Posts
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Putting The American Failure To Support Britain Over Argentina In Strategic Context
32 days ago -
Four Levers Of Policy Create An Opportunity For Exchange
33 days ago -
A Not So Funny, All Too True. Anti Immigration Cartoon
33 days ago -
Teasing Karl Smith: The Futility Of Teaching Pigs To Sing
33 days ago -
An Argument In Support Of Faith As A Limit On The State
34 days ago -
WORD BUDGETS: Writing vs Speaking, and the Male vs Female myth.
35 days ago -
Why Are Conservatives Happier?
35 days ago -
Stratfor On Iran’s Strategy
36 days ago -
A Heretical Question? Do Women Have Too Much Power?
36 days ago -
Libertarian Strategy
37 days ago
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Putting The American Failure To Support Britain Over Argentina In Strategic Context




