Capitalism v3
In 2004, I predicted the following:
- By November of 2005 the expansion of the US economy would stop (Correct)
- By August of 2006 we would structurally be in recession, regardless of the numbers promoted by the federal government (Correct)
- By October of 2006 we would see a slowdown in business (correct)
- Between November and February we would see a market correction of 30%. I refined this to December 15th, which has since passed. (Incorrect)
- By March 2007 we would openly discuss a state of recession. By August of 2007 we would be in full recession.
- The recession will last until the spring of 2010.
- The baby boomer reduction will hit shortly thereafter and fight against the attempted recovery.
- The US will drag the planet into worldwide reorganization the scope of which we have not seen since the fall of the Roman Empire.
This does not mean that people will not make money, or that businesses will not continue. It means that there will be less of a distribution of prosperity, and that prosperity we have made by our knowledge production will expand far less quickly. The counter-argument is that the number of people in the population simply affects the amount of economic innovation that occurs, but this is counter to what has happened in the history of Asia, which returns to the equilibrium of poverty just as quickly as the innovation can be implemented.
I will try to keep this updated as we move through time.
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About
Curt Doolittle
Seattle, WA, United States
"De Philosophia Aristocratia"
I am an independent theorist of Political Economy in the Austrian Libertarian tradition. As a methodological Propertarian, I support the Property and Freedom Society, The Mises Institute, and the Neo-Classical LIberalism Movement.